Pathogenicity/Transmissibility
Pathogenicity is influenced by genetic composition. Scientists have recognized that deadly strains of viruses all have mutations in a particular gene that affect its ability to replicate. What gene or what mutation?
Transmissibility is also crucial for a pandemic to occur. What affects transmissibility of this virus?
Mike Brown writes: It has been discovered that a limited number of very tiny genetic
changes in a specific gene, PB2, can have a big effect on how potent
the influenza virus is according to the National Institute of Allergy
and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). Since the influenza virus
constantly mutates, and because only a few changes can make a
non-pathogenic virus highly pathogenic, it is assumed that any
outbreak of a new strain or subtype is potentially dangerous to
humans.
Influenza can be highly contagious, particularly among
people without pre-existing antibodies against influenza, such as
young children. Since the influenza viruses are genetically variable,
the transmissibility is difficult to predict. There are many factors
such as environmental, population and contact factors that would play
into the possibility of a pandemic. There are also factors that
would play into controlling the outbreak to prevent a pandemic. These
factors include possible vaccine stockpiles, diagnosing the cases
early and isolating them.